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COVID-19 contagion and digital finance

Arianna Agosto, Paolo GiudiciFinTech金融人工智能Top Field
Digital Finance2020-05-11University of PaviaDOI
Citations19

Digital finance is going to be heavily affected by the COVID-19 outbreak. We present a statistical model which can be employed to understand the contagion dynamics of the COVID-19, so that its impact on finance can possibly be anticipated, and digitally monitored. The model is a Poisson autoregression of the daily new observed cases, and considers both short-term and long-term dependence in the infections counts. Model results are presented for the observed time series of China, the first affected country, but can be easily reproduced for all countries.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Poisson distributionEconometricsTerm (time)2019-20 coronavirus outbreakAutoregressive modelVector autoregressionEconomicsSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)ChinaOutbreakFinancial economics